Jul 09, 2024
Myanmar - China relation
1. What's happening in Myanmar currently?
Myanmar is experiencing intense fighting in Shan State, particularly in the northern regions. This conflict has erupted following the collapse of a China-brokered ceasefire. The fighting has escalated dramatically, with ethnic armed groups launching offensives against the military junta's positions. The situation is fluid and rapidly evolving, with reports of clashes near major cities and strategic locations. This resurgence of conflict represents a significant challenge to the military junta's control over the region and has potential implications for regional stability.
2. Who are the main groups involved in the fighting?
The primary combatants are:
a) The Three Brotherhood Alliance: This is a coalition of ethnic armed groups, including:
- The Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
- The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)
- The Arakan Army (AA), although not explicitly mentioned in this context
These groups have historically sought greater autonomy or independence for their respective ethnic regions.
b) The State Administration Council (SAC): This is the official name of Myanmar's military junta, which took power in a coup in February 2021. The SAC is struggling to maintain control over various parts of the country, including Shan State.
The conflict involves complex dynamics of ethnic identity, political power, and control over resources and territory.
3. What is Operation 1027?
Operation 1027 refers to a major offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in late 2023. The name comes from the date it began - October 27. This operation was remarkably successful, allowing the alliance to seize significant territory along Shan State's border with China, including several important border crossings. The operation demonstrated the military capabilities of the ethnic armed groups and their ability to coordinate effectively.
The recent resumption of fighting appears to be a continuation or second phase of this operation. The initial success of Operation 1027 likely emboldened the ethnic armed groups and highlighted vulnerabilities in the junta's military control. The current offensive seems to be building on these earlier gains, pushing further into junta-controlled territory and challenging key strategic locations.
4. How is China involved in this situation?
China's involvement in the Myanmar conflict is multifaceted:
a) Ceasefire broker: China brokered the ceasefire that recently collapsed, demonstrating its diplomatic role in the region.
b) Diplomatic engagement: China has been actively engaged in diplomatic exchanges with the Myanmar junta. Recent high-level visits, including former President Thein Sein's trip to Beijing and China's special envoy to Myanmar meeting with junta officials, underscore China's diplomatic interest in the situation.
c) Leverage over ethnic armed groups: China has significant influence over some of the ethnic armed groups, particularly those operating near the China-Myanmar border. This influence stems from historical, economic, and geographic factors.
d) Economic interests: China has substantial economic interests in Myanmar, including infrastructure projects and trade routes, which give it a stake in the country's stability.
e) Border security concerns: The conflict in Shan State directly affects China's border security, particularly regarding issues like refugee flows and cross-border crime.
China's role is complex and sometimes ambiguous, balancing its various interests in the region.
5. What's unclear about China's position?
China's stance on the current conflict is not entirely clear:
a) Previous tacit acceptance: During the initial phase of Operation 1027, China was perceived to have passively accepted the ethnic armed groups' offensive. This was thought to be due to Beijing's frustration with the junta's inability to control online scamming operations along the border.
b) Possible shift in attitude: Recent reports suggest China might be less supportive of the current fighting. For instance, there are indications that China cut power to Laukkai, a city controlled by the MNDAA, possibly in response to the group's offensive on Lashio.
c) Balancing act: China appears to be trying to balance its relationships with both the junta and the ethnic armed groups, making its true position difficult to discern.
d) Long-term strategy: It's unclear whether China's primary goal is immediate stability, long-term influence, or a combination of both.
This ambiguity in China's position adds another layer of complexity to the already intricate situation in Myanmar.
SRIRAM's
